Barstool’s Champions League Preview – The “Lads, It’s Totnum” Edition
Sam’s Soccer Safe Space For Stoolies
Hi Haters™,
And then there were eight.
The eight best? Meh, not necessarily. The eight most deserving? Absolutely. The eight most evenly matched? Helllllllllll naw – not on paper anyway.
In fact, there is a clear favorite in all four of the pairings. Gotta think at least one of the underdogs comes through though, right? RIGHT?? Perhaps. But keep in mind two truths: (1) In soccer, the rich get richer (a phenomenon that has been accentuated – if not accelerated – over the last decade); and (2) We have now reached the stage of this particular competition where Mega-Goliaths have a long and storied history of curb-stomping Moderately-Sized Goliaths. A quick look at the list of distinguished names that have played in the UCL finals in recent years is about as heterogeneous as a Paul Ryan (RIPIP) campaign photo:
But every now and again a pipsqueak slips through and shocks the world. The most recent example was quite a while ago at this point, but history has a funny way of repeating itself:
Was this just an excuse to slip a mention of Dear Leader (aka Da Content Gawd) into this blog?
Damn right, but also… just sayin:
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CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
No need for much more of an intro. The teams are set. We have been talking about most of them for months so there should be little in the way of surprises aside from some personnel news.
If someone were to ask me – before a ball has been kicked (meaning this is clearly subject to change) – to rank the underdogs by chances they find a way to overcome the odds and advance to the semifinals, I’d probably go with this off the top of my head:
1) Ajax
2) Tottenham
3) United
4) Porto
HOWEVA, (a) I’m dumb and (b) an injury to a key player (eg, Messi or Van Djik) or a silly ass red card (icu Nicolas Otamendi) early in a match can easily have a big impact on things. That’s why they play the game, after all. So let’s get right to the previewing and predictioning…
With a quick warning for those of you who get your jollies betting overs (not naming names): first… legs… are… often… cagey… affairs… you’ve been warned!
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Tottenham [+300]
City [-130]
Draw [+265]
I believe I speak for all Tottenham fans everywhere when I say:
City are better. City are deeper. Most importantly City are not Spurs.
I have been saying/whining/bitching all season that Tottenham’s back line is not good enough to compete with the best of the best, and this is precisely the kind of game where this is likely to rear its ugly head.
[WARNING, TACTICAL/PERSONNEL DETAILS TO FOLLOW – SKIP AT YOUR LEISURE] Spurs are likely going to be set up defensively as hell in hopes of withstanding the onslaught and trying to catch City pushing a little too far forward. Serge Aurier is hurt and Ben Davies is Ben Davies so chances are good that Pochettino will go three at the back (Jan Vertonghen/Toby Alderweireld/Davinson Sanchez) with Danny Rose on the left and Kieren Trippier on the right.
The only real question mark – since Dele, Eriksen and Kane are locked in – is whether Poch goes with two more defensive-minded midfielders alongside them (eg, Moussa Sissoko and Harry Winks) or if he throws Heung-min Son into the mix. That will be very telling about where Poch’s his is at coming into the game, and essentially whether he thinks Spurs can try to go toe to toe with City. Keep in mind, the game is at the “new White Hart Lane” and the atmosphere should be pretty amped… so I personally hope he goes with Son and Sissoko, but I also have a death wish.
If City has a weakness it is at wingback where RB Kyle Walker and LB Oleksandr Zinchenko are both in doubt (though I believe they both practiced yesterday). Sergio Aguero is also supposedly a question mark up top, but if history is any guide he could play on one leg and still score a brace against Tottenham.
So IF City are a little banged up and IF Spurs play a perfect game defensively – Hugo Lloris’ B.A.C. being less than 0.08 is a necessary but not sufficient part of that equation – then perhaps the home side could nick some sort of result… a 1-1 draw being my best-case scenario. But let’s be serious. I’ve been here before. I know how this movie ends. Lads, it’s Tottenham. City to win 2-1.
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Liverpool [-370]
Porto [+850]
Draw [+450]
Liverpool have a lot going on right now. If we are being deadly serious, crashing out of the Champions League right now – as painful and borderline embarrassing as it would be given their fortunate draw – would not be the worst thing in the world as far as their hopes to beat City, win the Premier League for the first time, and once and for all shut people up about The Slip. In addition to Porto today and next midweek, they have a must-win home game against Chelsea coming up on Sunday.
But that is in the realm of the theoretical. In the real world Liverpool are playing a team that they massacred (5-0) in last season’s Champions League knockouts – on the road no less. This one is at Anfield, and it finally feels like their three-headed scoring monster (Mane/Salah/Firmino) are all starting to click… or perhaps I should say Salah and Firmino are finally starting to get on the same level as Sadio Mane, who has been KILLING it.
This Liverpool is still not as hot offensively as last season’s Liverpool team, but they are a bit better defensively – if only because Alexander-Arnold and Robertson on the wings have another year of experience under their belts.
Porto has been hot (winning eight of ten) but anybody who saw them play Roma will not have come away terribly impressed. Their best shot is the great equalizer of set pieces, where they have excelled in the competition so far, as well as counter attacks getting in behind Liverpool’s wingbacks. TAA and Robertson have been incredibly good at pushing up and getting crosses in the box all season… but that comes at the expense of leaving gaps at the back. Joel Matip and especially Virgil Van Dijk have been lights out at cleaning up any messes that arise. That said, all it takes is one early mistake and….. well, let’s be honest, even if Porto snatch a quick goal they are still going to have to withstand 75-80 minutes of pressure. Good luck with that.
Rule #1 of Champions League: never ever ever ever ever ever doubt the Portuguese.
Liverpool to win 3-1.
Whoops.
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Lots more action coming up tomorrow. Stay tuned!
Oh dear.
Holler,
Samuel Army